Corpania Ideas

CAVEAT! I'm an amateur philosopher and idea-generator. I am NOT an investment professional. Don't take any of my advice before consulting with an attorney and also a duly licensed authority on finance. Seriously, this my personal blog of random ideas only for entertainment purposes. Don't be an idiot.

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

I'm so cynical that I recommend buying BP stock

In a just world, companies that claim the catastrophic possibilities of their actions are so extremely rare would then be required to "make a market" for insuring against such terrible events.

My example: DanCorp says that drilling for diamonds under the LA water supply is very safe. So safe that it claims the chances of any harm to the public are 1 in a Million. Based on that assessment the permits would be authorized provided that DanCorp allow anyone, everyone to buy unlimited insurance FROM DANCORP at that same 1 to a Million ratio (as soon as insurance stopped being sold by DanCorp permission would be revoked). So if the water is ultimately spoiled by DanCorp's actions then DanCorp must pay a million times whatever insurance amount was bought. Maybe in the interest of practicality there could be a 50% or even 10x difference to allow for a "spread" (so maybe if it says the odds are 1 in a Million it only has to insure at a 1 to 100,000 payoff ratio).

If something like this were done then BP (or Haliburton or any other company potentially jeopardizing the public) would have to either:
a) Be accurate in their assessments and only take judicious risks - IDEAL!
b) Be overly conservative in their assessments of risks (so as to arbitrage the insurance risk ratio) but then have a much less persuasive case to the permit-granting authorities.

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But all of that is moot concerning my cynical headline recommendation to:
 buy BP stock at 36.52 (as of Tuesday, June 1st, 2010).
http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/bp.html
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ABP
Why do I write that? Because we don't live in a just world and I'm skeptical about the likelihood of the necessary progressive change our world needs.
At a price of 36.52 , BP is trading at under 6 times earnings (whereas P/E ratios of 15 are historically stable).
Nobody thinks the world will get off oil in the next 30 years (let alone the next 10).
Consequently, BP stock is just so undervalued right now that I would buy it.

And yes, I still believe we should get off fossil fuels ASAP and switch to renewable energy like Solar & Wind immediately.

Check out my own solar ventures...

www.RandyHallSolar.com

&

www.Prontia.com


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