Sell Oil at $77 (from my May 17, 2010 advice to Buy Oil at $71)

On May 17th, 2010, I recommended buying Oil at $71 a barrel. http://corpania.blogspot.com/2010/05/at-71-oil-is-cheap.html Now that it's over $77, I'm recommending you take your profit and be happy. NOTE - I still think BP stock is a bargain in the low 30s (P/E ratio around 5). They've got plenty of cash coming in for the foreseeable future. And remember that Exxon's actual payout for the Valdez spill was a small fraction of the headline-grabbing fines & court ordered awards and that took two decades! Finally, now that BP has promised to escrow $20 billion my guess is that they don't end up paying much more than that. The low price now reflects the market's most dire assessment of BP's future.

I Solved it! The "Jews vs. Muslims" Conflict in Israel...

I Solved it! The "Jews vs. Muslims" Conflict in Israel... After reading 4 whole articles on the subject (wow!) I think I got it all figured out. • Beinart's now famous May (June?) 2010 essay in the New York Review of Books http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jun/10/failure-american-jewish-establishment/ • Beinart vs. Goldberg in 05/18/10 article in The Atlantic and its part II follow-up http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/05/goldblog-vs-peter-beinart-part-i/56914/ http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/05/goldblog-vs-peter-beinart-part-ii/56934/ • Goldberg's 06/11/10 article in The Atlantic http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/06/netanyahus-dilemma/58052/ In my assessment, the two biggest obstacles that prevent a "peace deal" between the Muslims and Jews in Israel are: 1) The current preponderance of power on the Muslim side's leaders are so hostile to Israel that no negotiation is possible (because the extreme Muslims, namely Hamas & Hezbollah et al., insist on ultimately eradicating the Jews with no possible compromise.) 2) Israel's very existence as a "Jewish State", however historically justified or potentially necessary in the future, is inherently predisposed to favoritism ("Apartheid" if we use the Islamic side's derogatory term) for example Muslims in the Gaza have their travel & imports severely restricted - in May 2010 "no jam, chocolate, or notebooks". And such favoritism is fundamentally antithetical to Western ideals of pluralism & democracy. For the rational people in the international community clearly the extreme Muslim side is worse (if only because most Jews, even most Jews in power in Israel don't want all the Muslims eradicated). But there's a clear "double-standard" in that the world holds Israel up to contemporary Western standards and expects little from the Muslim world (as evidenced by the tolerated racism & virtual "ethnic cleansing" of Jews in all Arab & officially Muslim countries). Nevertheless, let's not forget that a perpetually pure "Jewish State" is anti-pluralistic and intolerant by definition, which runs contrary to Western values. "Aha!" you exclaim, "But Israel allows some Muslims to vote and even some get elected to the Knesset". And that's a valid counter-argument to Muslim propaganda claims of complete "Apartheid" in Israel. But then the fundamental question becomes "Would Israel ever allow Muslims to be elected as the majority and thus would Israel ever allow Muslims to control Israel?" --- And so, non-rhetorically, I earnestly ask you, dear reader who generally supports Israel - "Would you be OK with a future where Muslims get legally elected to the majority in the Knesset?" - If you would ever be OK with a legally-elected Muslim majority in the Knesset then you truly believe in Democracy and the crucial concept of accepting the will of the people even if it is entirely against your own views. Then the question becomes "Given that commitment to Democracy, what is an acceptable course of action to prevent a Muslim majority?" And later we can explore that resulting question's ramifications in its branch of the "future permutation tree". - If, however, you would never be OK with a legally-elected Muslim majority of the Knesset then you don't truly believe in Democracy. Instead your priority would clearly be on a Jewish state over a Democracy where the universally fair & rational argument for that is very delicate to say the least. If you are against racism and apartheid then you can't be for a perpetually Jewish state unless you think Judaism will become the dominant religion (which no one believes). Note - Saying you're only OK with a Muslim minority in the Knesset isn't a morally coherent compromise any more than Iran saying it is pluralistic & tolerant because it has one Jew in its 290-person parliament. N.B. - Just because someone believes in a theoretical future where Muslims could be elected to the majority of the Knesset doesn't necessarily mean that such a person must therefore accept that today's (often extreme) Muslims should be allowed to control the Knesset. In any event, self-preservation is the prime & supreme right of all people. Israel certainly need not allow the circumstances of its own destruction. This must be practically considered in all potential branches of the future permutation tree. So what are all the possible paths (branches of the future permutations tree) that would end the Muslim-Jewish conflict to the satisfaction of Jews in Israel? 1) Convince the majority of Muslims that Jews shouldn't be eradicated so that if Muslims indeed ever did come to power in Israel it would be an acceptable outcome. = (MY FAVORITE BRANCH OF THE FUTURE PERMUTATIONS TREE) 2) Find enough of the extreme Muslims (who seek to eradicate Jews) and either kill or imprison or expel those Muslims so that the rational, peaceful Muslims become the majority. = (THE SECOND MOST DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE BRANCH OF THE "FPT") 3) Eradicate all non-Jews (killing them, imprisoning them and/or expelling them) so that only Jews remain in Israel. = (THE MOST DANGEROUS AND LIKELY COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE BRANCH OF THE "FPT") 4) Convince the world that Jews in Israel deserve a perpetual, universal exception to the Western values of pluralism & Democracy and consequently institute everlasting apartheid = (EVEN IF THIS WERE DESIRABLE OR POSSIBLE IT SETS A DANGEROUS PRECEDENT FOR RACISTS & SEPARATISTS IN EVERY OTHER COUNTRY). NOTE - For each one of those outcomes there is an opposite viewpoint potentially espoused by extreme Muslims that would eradicate Jews in Israel. So be careful which path you prefer because the reverse could be argued or actually happen. FINALLY - The only other option is continued conflict. However, that may not currently be the worst possible path for Jews in Israel. This particular argument isn't very popular but it's crucial. Maybe now isn't the right time because extreme Muslims are too powerful & popular. Maybe after a few more decades of conflict more rational, peaceful Muslims will come to power and be fair negotiators for peace with Jews in Israel. So if that's the branch of the FPT (i.e. the current path) Israel is on ("conflict until Muslims have peaceful leaders"), then shouldn't we do what we can to facilitate and expedite the ascension of the rational & peaceful Muslims to positions of power in their communities? How can we do that? If you were a non-extreme Muslim what would you respond to or what would convince you that Jews in Israel are OK? In short, I keep returning to my decade-old "strategy" for Israel... Step 1: Stop building settlements and just try to "hold" the status quo for a while. Step 2: Earn credibility by magnanimously aiding/supporting Muslim Palestinians in highly-visible ways while explicitly not asking for anything in return (especially building hospitals & secular schools which could simply start with math & science only, no history or politics, so Muslim parents would appreciate them but wouldn't fear propaganda.) Step 3: After a long time of steps 1 & 2, Israel publicly offering an overly-generous deal to the Palestinians and making any acceptance conditional upon highly visible promises of peace/unity and official pronouncements against violent & extreme Muslims such as Hamas, Hezbollah etc. (to divide & conquer). Then if the Palestinians don't take the deal the international community would be more likely to get on Israel's side. Repeat steps 1 & 2 and then 3 until progress is made. I know some substantial portion of Muslims really want to annihilate all Jews/Israelis and nobody will ever change their minds. But it all comes down to the "rational middle". Don't ever give rational people a fair reason to want to kill you. (Maybe take a look at the last 6 points of my somewhat related post: http://corpania.blogspot.com/2008/01/there-is-no-existential-threat-to.html ) This is all just my opinion. I could be wrong. So maybe using the word "Solved" in the headline was a bit too strong. Forgive my grandiose hype, yet again. ;-) Be well and good karma to you.