Corpania Ideas

CAVEAT! I'm an amateur philosopher and idea-generator. I am NOT an investment professional. Don't take any of my advice before consulting with an attorney and also a duly licensed authority on finance. Seriously, this my personal blog of random ideas only for entertainment purposes. Don't be an idiot.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

I estimate Muslims (in 2010) are 1/400th as dangerous as Germans were in WWII

Al Qaeda are not as bad as Nazis and modern Muslims are not remotely as dangerous as Germans in WWII. (I estimate it's "one quarter of 1%" as dangerous)

First some stats to prove empirically that equating Al Qaeda to Nazi Germany is a false equivalency.

German population in 1939 = 80 million
German population in the Nazi Army (Wehrmacht Service) = over 4 million

Americans Killed throughout WWII = over 0.4 million
Percentage of US population killed = 0.32%
Allied Soldiers & Civilians killed throughout WWII = 61 million
I'm assuming 1/2 of those are by Nazi hands (the other half are Axis powers Italy & Japan. If you want to run numbers based on different assumptions, then please do.)

http://www.feldgrau.com/stats.html 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties

So at least 1 in 20 Germans were actively (daily) working towards killing Allied troops & civilians (not to mention Germany's own Jews, Gypsies, Gays, Handicapped etc.).

OK, now compare that to our modern day (2010) fight in the Middle East and arguably/regrettably with the Muslim World...

Muslim population = 1.2 billion (i.e. 1,200 million)
Number of modern Muslims actively working towards killing Americans = DISPUTED

I'd estimate it's well under 600,000. The number of American deaths (including 9/11 and our wars/occupations of Iraq & Afghanistan) is under 10,000 and if there were more than 600,000 active enemies of America they would/could do a lot more damage & murdering considering how vulnerable we are (see my post on the "Dog that didn't bark").

If I had to guess I'd bet it's well under 60,000 but for the purposes of this illustration let's go with the conservative number that is 10 times that.

Note - Telling a poll they "agree with Bin Laden" doesn't make them actively supporting or working towards Al Qaeda's goals.
BTW - check out how those polls are trending in the past few years and especially since Obama was elected -
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1338/declining-muslim-support-for-bin-laden-suicide-bombing
http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=264
http://pewglobal.org/database/?indicator=20&mode=chart
http://pewglobal.org/database/?indicator=19&survey=10&response=Often/sometimes%20justified&mode=table


Ok, so here are my equations:

Start with active killers and the damage they've done...

4 million Germans killed 0.2 million Americans and 30 million Allies.
Consequently, the "average German in Wehrmacht Service" killed 0.05 Americans and 7.5 Allies.

whereas...
600,000 Muslim Extremists killed 10,000 Americans.
Consequently, the "average Muslim Extremist" killed 0.0166 Americans (already 1/3 as bad as Nazis).

Now consider that while the group of 1.2 billion Muslims is 15 times bigger than 80 million Germans, the 600,000 trying to kill us is 1/2000th the size of the 1.2 billion person population. So you multiply the 1/3 by 15 = 5 and then divide that by 2,000 to get that modern Muslims are 1/400th as likely as WWII-era Germans to kill us.

Let's look at it another way:
 "1 out of 2,000 of all modern Muslims" trying to kill us is literally 1% as bad (i.e. 1/100th as bad) "1 out of 20 Germans" who were in Nazi military service trying to kill us. However since there are 15 times as many modern Muslims as there were Germans during WWII you multiply 1/100 by 15 to get that Modern Muslims are 15/100ths as bad. But since the Germans killed 20 times as many Americans as Muslim Extremists have they are 20 times worse. So you get 15/2000 which equals 1/133 but since Muslim extremists are 1/3 as effective per-extremist at killing Americans (compared to Nazis) you divide it by 3 to get to 1/400.

Therefore the threat of Muslim Extremism is 1/400th as deadly(dangerous) as Nazism was in WWII.
Put another way, Germans in WWII were 400 times more dangerous to Americans than modern Muslims are to Americans now. QED.

*N.B. If you run the numbers including non-American Allied & Civilian deaths (which are 100 to 150 times greater than American casualties) you get that the Germans were at least 40,000 times more dangerous than modern Muslims (100 x 400).

And if you also consider the percentage of the American population killed by Nazis compared to Muslim Extremists the WWII-era Germans look even worse compared to Modern Muslims.

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