I think Oil Prices will Drop Further (from $115 price per barrel down to...?)

Check my July 13th post for proof of my prognosticating genius (I said $145 was the peak and then oil prices tumbled down to $115 today) and my reasoning. I think oil prices will drop further (assuming no war with Iran) for the same reasons plus a few more: 1) The very fact that oil prices tumbled has become a news story. So the traders have to assess that there's less hype to "scare up" prices. That means less upside potential and therefore more reason to exit their positions. If oil prices dropped from $85 to $55 then you might think that it would be a buying opportunity but at $115 the price of oil is still way above what I think it's "intrinsic" value should be (check out my July 13th post). 2) The Bush administration and the McCain campaign have shifted away from bellicose talk about Iran. The more "Middle East War Talk" the more of a risk premium, the higher the prices. The less of such talk reduces the upward pressure on prices. 3) There has been news of Iraq running an $80 BILLION budget SURPLUS because of high oil prices. That draws international & U.S. scrutiny that the big oil players don't want. 4) The proponents of alternative energy want oil prices to be high to motivate the shift to renewable energy. Big Oil is fearful of a "windfall profits" tax. The major players in Big Oil recognize that being a bit less greedy for the short term (especially before the election) may give another issue a better opportunity to take the attention away from them. Remember that Big Oil is in the absurd position of simultaneously arguing that "oil is in such short supply relative to demand that it should have a high price" AND ALSO that "oil is in such abundant supply relative to demand that we shouldn't switch away from it". It's ridiculous that any informed, righteous, Republicans would be their defenders. 5) Apparently, high oil prices really have reduced oil usage among Americans. Less demand equals lower prices. 6) Pickens is still advertising about alternative energy and the more people know about it compared to oil the lower the "solar ceiling" that can depress oil prices. Personally, I want oil prices to be higher so we do a giant shift to renewable energy. But my prediction is based on the facts and my understanding of human behavior. I could be proven wrong. I post to this blog to put myself on the record. I hope I have the integrity to not delete this post if I'm proven wrong. I'm specifically giving myself the test to potentially look like a fool in the hopes that if I'm proven right I will be seen as all the more righteous. Silly & grandiose? Sure. I'm at least self-aware. ;-) P.S. If I had to put a number on it, I'd guess that oil's "true price" should be $70 - $90 per barrel until the next big breakthroughs in solar & battery technology.