Quick update about a couple of my previous predictions:
• Oil is currently at $83 (remember that I have long said Oil "should" be priced between $70 - $90 a barrel).
• Romney and Obama are virtually in a dead heat in the polls (remember that I previously predicted that Obama will win reelection and I maintain that view). But I think the polls are currently close because the general public is not yet paying significant attention to the election (which is why polls 2 to 9+ months before any election can vary & swing so wildly). Right now Romney is the "Not Obama" vote and benefiting from ignorance about his record (Romney's Massachusetts was 47th in job creation, and at Bain, on anything other than ROI for investors & low-taxed "carried interest" compensation for himself, his record will look bad to the voters because of massive layoffs & bankruptcies.) .
NOTE: I have to give my standard caveat that my political predictions are not only biased (I'm a proud Liberal/Progressive) but seem to be less accurate that some of my other predictions because of my biases (I tend to predict futures that trend closer to what I want to see in those cases).
MY NEWEST PREDICTION (as of 06/05/12)...
Call me a "Pollyanna" but I predict that Greece won't exit the Euro.
My main reasoning is based on the fact that any other alternative (of which I'm currently aware) is WAY worse.
All of the major players in the Eurozone (EU) are highly educated and well aware of decision theory. This is not to say that it's impossible for them to make mistakes because of course they have and they can in the future. They're human and biased and have competing priorities and assumptions (we're all flawed).
So here's my thinking when I game-out possible scenarios:
(those who work on Wall Street can jump to "Alternate Scenario#3: The Slacker Son Scenario" where I might have a potentially interesting perspective compared to the well-tread terrain of scenarios#1 & #2).
THE CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION:
a) The EU holds together and doesn't expel Greece from the Euro.
b) Germany and the rest of the EU countries (especially those other than the PIIGS) subsidize Greece, as necessary, to prop it up to the minimum degree they can rationalize for the foreseeable future.
c) Everyone "whistles past the graveyard" and hopes we all grow enough to be able to support our current and future obligations.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO#1) "The EU Expels Greece from the Euro Publicly & Outright":
a) As soon as any word of this leaks out (and it basically must): "Bank runs" happen in Greece as customers transfer their cash primarily to German banks (but perhaps, even worse, literally under mattresses which is the most economically unproductive way possible).
b) The rest of the PIIGS fear for a similar fate. Consequently, citizens of Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain soon after have similarly terrible runs on their banks.
c) The German banks do very well but now the holders of PIIGS' debt (primarily the banks & investors) are holding horribly precarious (or virtually worthless) paper. If you were the (significantly Socialist) government of Greece why would you pay back your creditors? Why not simply default completely? Life is currently crap in Greece and paying back that debt makes life worse (at least in the short run) for Greek citizens. BTW - Everyone should read "The Shock Doctrine" by Naomi Klein.
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_doctrine
d) The Greeks create their own currency and are instantly subjected to insane inflation (since they've ruined their credibility by getting expelled from the EURO and now there's no "German brother" to bail them out).
e) The EURO loses value worldwide because of the rest of the Eurozone countries lose credibility for embracing and then so soon after expelling Greece. A currency is attractive because of its stability & credibility.
f) So the downside is comprehensible and there's no upside since the creditors get burned anyway (likely worse then would had Greece not exited the Euro).
CONCLUSION FOR ALTERNATE SCENARIO#1 = TERRIBLE FOR EVERYONE IN THE EU
ALTERNATE SCENARIO#2) "The EU Attempts to Surreptitiously Expel Greece from the Euro"
a) The EU takes some preliminary (shady) steps towards this plan:
- Flagging Euros/Accounts with an asterisk of sorts denoting the country of origin or the holder's nationality.
- Enacting (likely opaque/incomprehensible) legislation "under the radar" that enables all of the other EU countries to "freeze & isolate" (quarantine) bank accounts of Greek citizens.
b) Now when the inevitable "bank run" happens in Greece the Greek citizens get burned the most because their money (which they thought would be safe in German banks) gets confiscated to pay off creditors.
c) The rest of the PIIGs still suffer the same terrible fate of bank runs (albeit at a slightly slower pace).
d) Some Creditors do better then they currently fear because they confiscate Greek's investment (but creditors still lose principle).
e) German banks do less well because "flagged currency/accounts" will encourage Greeks to transfer their cash to other countries (especially those in Asia).
f) Greeks more certainly default on the rest of their debt (because they were just robbed and aren't concerned with paying their robber even if the robber was previously the creditor and there is debt outstanding).
CONCLUSION FOR ALTERNATE SCENARIO#2 = ASIA DOES WELL, CREDITORS GET SOME PAYMENT, MAXIMUM HORROR FOR GREECE and STILL SUBSTANTIALLY TERRIBLE FOR EVERYONE IN THE EU,
ALTERNATE SCENARIO#3) "The EU Expels Greece but Simultaneously Gives Stipends & Guarantees (to prevent Greek bank runs)" - aka "The Slacker Son Scenario"
DESCRIPTION: This scenario is a bit like parents who let their slacker son move back into the house after college but he's been such "a pain in the neck & a drain on the finances" that they gotta kick him out. If they simply kick him out on the street there's a chance he'll become an actual bum or criminal (which is bad for the parents). So instead, while the parents do kick the kid out to live on his own they also generously give him a stipend to cover his living expenses. The understanding is that the kid has to start to make it on his own and the stipend will eventually decrease to zero. In this way the rest of the EU publicly promises to subsidize Greece for the foreseeable future.
NOTE: This could also simultaneously be done with the shady elements of "Alternate Scenario#2" to flag & quarantine Greek accounts.
a) Since this third scenario is so functionally similar to the current course of action (continued inclusion in the EU) there is the possibility that it would indeed prevent Greek bank-runs (and those ensuing bank-runs for the rest of the PIIGS). However these subsidies & guarantees would have to be gigantic and rock-solid to prevent panic (and bank-runs in Greece). This third scenario would basically makes explicit, ironically in expulsion, the implicit promises it made to Greece by means of inclusion in the Euro. It's the same (or a better) level of protection & support with a largely semantic/paper distinction that paves the way, eventually, for a return to entirely separate currencies.
b) Such gigantic & rock-solid subsidies and guarantees would not be at all politically popular in any EU country that is not one of the PIIGS (especially Germany). This generosity would be unambiguously seen as "zero sum" (good for Greece and by extension the rest of the PIIGS and bad for everybody else, especially Germany).
c) Since this is still a big change it adds "unpredictability" and thus "risk" to the situation and in so doing enables greater unforeseen potential outcomes. All of that, ceteris paribus, is bad for investors & creditors.
CONCLUSION FOR ALTERNATE SCENARIO#3 = Not so terrible in results for the EU (compared to "the current course") but quite terrible in political "optics" for the subsidizing nations in the EU. Why would a non-PIIGS politician pursue this course of action if there's no clear net benefit?
CONCLUSION FOR ALL KNOWN SCENARIOS:
Alternate Scenarios #1 and #2 would have terrible results and #3 has no clear net benefit. Also, not insignificantly, there is always gigantic inertia in these matters so making a big change would ordinarily require a "shock" to scare people into changing course assuming such a change would make things better (side note: seriously, please read about Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine").
Consequently, I predict the EU stays on "the current course" for the foreseeable future and keeps Greece in the Eurozone/using the Euro.
Let's see how well my prescient streak continues.
I do hereby promise to not delete this post out of embarrassment even if I'm ultimately proven wrong.
I sincerely hope to maintain my intellectual integrity by keeping track of my bad calls as well as my good ones.
And I hope others do the same (and not "cherry pick" there accurate predictions like deluded psychics & astrologists).
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