My prediction: OBAMA WILL WIN REELECTION and the Democrats will regain control of congress (while retaining the Senate).

I'm normally impressively accurate with my predictions but I have a notorious blind-spot. When I really want a political prediction to come true I tend to overestimate its likelihood.

So with that caveat in mind, here's my most recent prediction: OBAMA WILL WIN REELECTION AND THE DEMOCRATS WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF CONGRESS (and retain the Senate). It won't be as dominating as 2008 but it also won't be a "squeeker-close" election either.

That doesn't mean we Democrats can slack-off because the GOP will have an obscene amount of corporate-sponsored SuperPac money with which to obfuscate/lie in endless ads. Not to mention pernicious GOP-led voter-suppression of Democratic-leaning constituencies coupled with assorted other shady variables unfortunately could make it go the other way. But I really think, in a fair campaign, the GOP has virtually no win this year primarily because of the following factors:

1) Obama's record is objectively pretty good: ending Iraq war, killed Bin Laden, saved GM, economy is improving, etc. (especially compared to GWBush's trajectory). Americans know that it takes time for policies to take effect. I like Rep. Xavier Becerra's line "even Superman needed some track to stop the train."

2) The current crop of GOP candidates (Romney/Gingrich/Santorum) and their donors/puppeteers have become too extreme and far too Right-wing for Americans to stomach. Their bubble-living world is too far removed from the current voting public. It's crazy that the GOP are publicly advocating for the 1% and against regulations in the wake of the Wall Street meltdown on GWBush's watch.

Old School/Previous Republicans had largely similar views (though they were much more willing to compromise) but they had the political savvy to LIE and put forth progressive-sounding platforms that included "Compassionate Conservatism". Being too blatantly anti-progressive puts today's extremist Republicans at odds with the truly progressive majority of the American public (defined using policy positions not self-identifying bogus "branding" at which the GOP is so effective).

3) The Liberal American population has become (and will continue to become) more Liberal (e.g. embracing democratizing technology, not offended by pornography, ever more pro-science/anti-religion, accepting of gays, tolerant of drug use, anti-corporate power etc.).

Also the American population has become more Black and Latino. Over the past few decades, conservative old white Republicans die of old age. Meanwhile Democrat-leaning Blacks & Latinos have been giving birth to more and more American children at higher rates than Republican-leaning whites do. Since the GOP continues to be so blatantly anti-minority (re: immigration, help for the poor which disproportionally affects minorities etc.), the GOP necessarily is giving up an increasingly significant slice of the electorate.

Now Obama has foolishly taken the Latinos for granted (so far abandoning his promise on immigration reform and shockingly increasing deportations compared to GWBush). But luckily for Obama, the GOP is so much worse for Latinos that he can and will get away with it. Nevertheless, I think Obama, in his second term, should create a "path to citizenship" for undocumented immigrants who have been living here for over a decade.

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EVIDENCE FOR MY PREDICTION:

a) Conspicuous absence of "Tea Party" protestors and overall lack of GOP enthusiasm in the public square. Especially compare that with the highly motivated and undeterred OWS movement.

b) Low voter turnout in GOP primaries & caucuses.

c) Anecdotal evidence in my personal life: Fewer and fewer instances of previously Republican-leaning friends protesting against Obama and predicting his defeat.

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CAVEAT: My prediction is based "ceteris paribus" on the forseeable future. If unemployment somehow spikes or if there are some other unpredictable events (terrorism attack etc.) then my prediction should be weighted and evaluated accordingly.

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FINAL NOTE: The only realistic hope the GOP will have is if they nominate Marco Rubio (American-born from Cuban parents) and he is somehow able to moderate the GOP's anti-immigrant stance in the campaign (perhaps with the support of Agri-business and other industries which substantially rely on illegal workers to function).


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