Corpania Ideas

CAVEAT! I'm an amateur philosopher and idea-generator. I am NOT an investment professional. Don't take any of my advice before consulting with an attorney and also a duly licensed authority on finance. Seriously, this my personal blog of random ideas only for entertainment purposes. Don't be an idiot.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Important follow-up on oil prices (oil ETFs are bad)


When last I commented about the price of oil (December 31, 2008) I reiterated that I had predicted (on December 2, 2008 when oil was at $47 per barrel and DIG was at $27.91) that oil prices would go up.

http://corpania.blogspot.com/2008/12/dans-end-of-year-2008-report-on-oil.html
http://corpania.blogspot.com/2008_12_01_archive.html

And if you look at the closing price of oil today (May 12, 2009) I was, yet again, indeed correct in my prediction.
http://bloomberg.com/energy/
NYMEX CRUDE: $58.69
Your ROI, had you followed my advice, would have been nearly a 25% profit (versus the S&P500 going from 848.81 on 12/2/08 to 908.35 on 05/12/09 for a 7% profit).

HOWEVER...I regret advocating investing in ETFs like DIG (the price of which today is only $29.24 for only a a 4.7% profit) but I'm glad I didn't recommend USO (whose price has actually fallen in the same time period).

Apparently these ETFs (DIG,USL & especially USO), that explicitly attempt to highly correlate with the price of oil, are at varying levels inherently flawed.

Do yourself a favor an read one of these commentaries:
http://peakstocks.com/is-the-uso-a-piece-of-junk
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/why-this-oil-fund-usl-is-the-pick-of-the-bunch/12437

CONSEQUENTLY, my recommendation is to get out of any oil ETFs now.
I also predict that oil prices per barrel don't have much higher to jump and could potentially fall. (Though I still stand by my previous prediction that oil prices "should" be $70 - $90 per barrel until the next major breakthroughs in solar/alternative energy or the coming evolution/revolution in our government's energy policy).
So I also recommend you get out of oil altogether.
I think there are better investments out there.

As always, I could be wrong. We shall see.
Still, my track record of predicting oil prices is kinda amazing.

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