Corpania Ideas

CAVEAT! I'm an amateur philosopher and idea-generator. I am NOT an investment professional. Don't take any of my advice before consulting with an attorney and also a duly licensed authority on finance. Seriously, this my personal blog of random ideas only for entertainment purposes. Don't be an idiot.

Saturday, March 21, 2020

MORE ENTERTAINING THOUGHTS & PREDICTIONS ABOUT COVID19 (FWTW):

MORE ENTERTAINING THOUGHTS & PREDICTIONS ABOUT COVID19 (FWTW):

Ok, so I kinda look like a prescient genius (at least temporarily) for emailing a bunch of friends a week ago with my repeated prediction that the market was going to drop even further (from S&P index ~2700 on Sunday night 03/15/20, down to ~2300 on 03/20/20), which is a delta of ~15% collapsing in 1 week (the worst week in over a decade).

I asked what would happen if "a GOP Senator or Trump family member or Hannity/Rush (got) seriously sick from (Covid19)"? 
And now LOU DOBBS is self-quarantining (sufficiently close as a test case for my hypothesis).
So this will be a natural experiment to see if my prediction further holds true. I maintain that some sort of bipartisan consensus on COVID19's eventual effects must exist as a prerequisite for a lasting market rebound with reduced volatility (stipulating that I'm a financial amateur).

Now, to fairly calibrate and quite fortunately, it seems partisan opinions of the dangers of COVID19 have begun to get into better alignment.

Purely coincidentally, right after my email because there's virtually no way they listen to me...
Perhaps, the better bipartisan alignment happened because FoxNews has auspiciously, conspicuously re-oriented to be much less dismissive of COVID19's harms and it has become more realistically cautionary.

To be fair, it's conceivable many short sellers will want to do profit-taking and the supposedly big money on the sidelines could want to "buy the dip" (as per Larry Kudlow's and Trump administration's recommendations), which would indicate upward pressure.
That's not my view, considering all of the factors in play. But I could easily be wrong.

The big picture questions that are currently most interesting to me are: 

• How much more panic and fear will we have to endure? 

• When will we see (and believe) that there's light at the end of the tunnel?

• Ron Paul's recent op-ed is like a gamer who'd prefer to lose actual friends IRL in order to win more points. So, given that perspective, how likely is our government to make an unconscionably cold calculus that saving 100k to 2MM+ American lives is not worth the economic catastrophe caused by such mandated "social distancing" and similar actions, for extended periods of time?

• What's the likelihood we never rebound to normalcy (as we knew it in 2019)? How many restaurants, bars, clubs, movie theaters, amusement parks, concert venues, gyms, hotels, etc. will close forever and which chains will subsequently strive to take their place (assuming society's behavior resumes with people going out the way we did in the "before times")?

• Given our massive increase in military interventions and spending after 9/11, and how it's likely that COVID19 will kill exponentially more Americans, what is the likelihood that that disproportionate response effects a massive re-prioritization of resources (devastating the MIC/arms manufacturers) and diverting greater resources into pandemic-related and health industries? 
>>> Seems like any company that can install "automatic doors" should skyrocket. Emoji

IMHO, the key factors in changing the equation are:

• When will there be a sufficiently *verified* cure/treatment and vaccine? As soon as we "know" it's coming, optimism and bullish investment seem likely to happen, in my amateur opinion, and well before the cure's and vaccine's rollouts (let alone before their positive effects take hold).

• When will we know how likely "herd immunity" is to result from those who recover plus those ultimately vaccinated? Is reinfection a serious concern? What's the likelihood of mutation (will there be a yearly Covid20/21/22 etc.) and comparable calamities?

• What will happen in the next couple of months or so when large numbers of functionally laid-off people (2% to 10%+ which is millions in the US) can't pay their bills? If the government doesn't find a way to give citizens direct payments & bill/rent/debt waivers (socialism!?!) and/or other sufficient social programs & relief in time, will there be rampant criminality? And if so, will there be an authoritarian government crackdown?

REMINDER: I'm just giving you my amateur opinions for entertainment purposes. I'm not a financial professional. #TWYFA - Talk with your financial advisor.

BTW - I love the podcast "THE YOUNG TURKS"! 
They're informative and fun to listen to, so please sign-up for membership and use my link: https://tap.tyt.com/corpania


Thanks and good karma to you!

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