Corpania Ideas

CAVEAT! I'm an amateur philosopher and idea-generator. I am NOT an investment professional. Don't take any of my advice before consulting with an attorney and also a duly licensed authority on finance. Seriously, this my personal blog of random ideas only for entertainment purposes. Don't be an idiot.

Thursday, December 01, 2011

Don't Blame Homebuyers: Part 2

This post is "Part 2" of my post "Blame the Homebuyers Only if You Reject Your Doctor's Advice…."
http://corpania.blogspot.com/2011/12/blame-homebuyers-only-if-you-reject.html

Please only read the following post after having read "Part 1". Thank you.

Here is PART 2:

 Regarding Libertarian Banker-Apologists' second specious point: 
- "It's not the banks' fault at all. The government 'MADE' the banks loan to non-creditworthy homebuyers."
 
The federal government law to which those bank-apologists are referring is primarily the "Community Reinvestment Act" that requires banks to make loans inside their respective communities. Basically, a bank can't take all the deposits from one neighborhood (e.g. the ghetto) and then exclusively make loans to a different neighborhood (e.g. the suburbs).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Reinvestment_Act
 
BUT THAT LAW HAS FUNDAMENTALLY BEEN IN EFFECT SINCE 1977!
 
So the libertarian bank-apologists really think that the cause of the housing bubble/bust of the GWBush years was only the community-reinvestment regulations that have been substantially identical for 30+ years?
No, that's simply laughably absurd.
 
Instead, all should consider the legitimate possibility that a major cause was the changes in regulations (i.e. the REDUCTION and RELAXATION of REGULATIONS) around 1999 & 2000. Yes, that's right, I'm blaming Bill Clinton and his Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. While Phil Graham and the Republicans primarily were championing these horrible deregulations and strong-arming the Democrats to go along, they couldn't have done it without Bill Clinton. For you policy wonks, here's what they passed:
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm-Leach-Bliley_Act (which repealed the decades-long successful Glass-Steagal protections)
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_Futures_Modernization_Act_of_2000 (which enabled the proliferation of dangerously leveraged derivatives that Warren Buffet calls "Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction").
 

So when trying to diagnose the cause of a problem do you look at the nearest cause or the farthest cause? If you get food poisoning tonight do you think it was from today's lunch or from the cake you had on your seventh birthday?
 
Yes, I will concede that government action helped cause the GWBush financial crisis but it was the Republican-led government action of DEREGULATION that allowed the banks to ruin our economy in the 21st century.
 
Let's think practically here.
 
Say you control a casino.
Would you allow someone who is worth $1 million to bet $100k on credit you extend to him?
How about gambling $1 million on your credit? How about $6 million? How about $32 million?
How much would it matter if the gambler was a purportedly very successful poker player and only wanted to use your extended credit to play poker?
What if that poker player somehow lost half the $32 million he borrowed from you? 
But since the fundamental existence of the poker game in your casino was at stake when he lost that money, you fronted him the $16 million loss. His accountants then count that $16 million example of taxpayer generosity to fortify the gambler's balance sheet and ensure he appears to be profitable (despite the $16 million he lost).
Would you then be OK with him paying himself a $1 million bonus? How about a $2 million bonus?
 
Well that's all highly analogous to what the banks did to the American people.
Their "capital requirement" / "capital asset ratio" regulations were relaxed so that they could use depositors' funds as collateral for massive risk. And on that collateral they were allowed to "leverage" themselves and gamble at 32 times the amount they actually had (including their depositors' investments which don't even belong to the bank). This new, massive increase in leverage was tantamount to a commensurate (artificial) increase in "demand". That much more money being loaned out to buy stocks & real estate during the GWBush years meant increased prices (i.e. an artificial bubble).

Then, when the bust inevitably occurred the banks required the TARP bailout from us taxpayers (which, to be fair, they largely paid back already). But concurrently these banks also required the unprecedented moving of "toxic assets" off their balance sheets in the TRILLIONS with a "T" (not billions with a "B"). With these absurdly "cleaned-up balance sheets" they got to claim massive profitability and therefore shamelessly "justify" giving themselves gigantic bonuses that are virtually entirely unearned.
Please read Matt Taibbi and Robert Scheer for more about this…
 
But in the interest of true fairness and balance…
 
I will concede that the GSEs Fannie & Freddie must also share in the blame.
 
And, of course, the microscopic percentage of homebuyers who actively deceived their loan officers in a criminal attempt to get a bigger loan (that they knew they couldn't afford to repay) - well, sure, they're guilty, too.
 
But before you blow that miniscule fact out of proportion consider the ramifications. A mortgage is virtually always more expensive than rent. In a standard loan, you pay some interest PLUS SOME PRINCIPLE. Taking out a bigger loan than you can afford necessarily means eventually getting evicted (for being so "upside down" = owing more than the home is worth). Once you get caught like that you get evicted and all of your principle is lost. So you will have paid more in the form of a mortgage than you would have if you rented! Under normal/historic circumstances, even for a criminal there is no upside to getting a bigger loan than he can afford.
 
The only ways to "game" such a normal/historic system are to either:
a) "deliberately not pay until they actually evict you" (thus getting "free rent" until eviction).
OR…
b) get an "interest only loan", paying that artificially lower mortgage until the principal payments kick-in, years later, and then stop paying & move out (thus getting de facto "subsidized rent").
 
But both such immoral actions are minimally dangerous under 1960s/70s/80s style financial regulations. Whereas they are significant risks thanks to GOP-led deregulation.
 
In any event, you can't blame the homebuyers for the GWBush financial meltdown.

Firstly - The banks should have only given loans to those who could afford to pay. It's the banks' primary job to find good lenders. Otherwise you shouldn't want banks to exist and instead you should prefer only a system of "safety deposit boxes" coupled with a paypal-like money transfer system. When unemployment spikes to 9% the effect on the financial system should be tolerable. When in a massively-leveraged bubble (due to deregulation) such cyclical shifts can threaten to become cataclysmic dangers.

Secondly - The government/regulators shouldn't allow any industry to threaten the existence of America. Remember Warren Buffet's repeated warning that massively leveraged derivatives are still "Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction". We simply shouldn't let banks gamble at such absurd multiples of their net worth. And if one does need a bailout then draconian strings should be attached (e.g. I think "In the event of financial bailout, every one of the bank's management should be personally financially 'wiped out' to no more than $1million in net worth before a single dollar is borrowed from the taxpayer."). It's crazy "reverse-Robin Hood" GOP thinking that a school teacher should pay 20% of their 50K annual salary so that a foolish trader on Wall Street (who has lost more in his career than he has made) can keep his millions in ill-gotten gains (and pay a lower percentage tax rate).

For the record: I'm really not against Wall Street traders/investors/hedge fund managers etc. Some are good friends of mine (since high school). Those who, over the years, earn more on their investments than they lose should be well-compensated. Those whose clients' investments, over the years, earn an ROI greater than the market (e.g. S&P) deserve substantially greater compensation. Conversely, those so called "investment professionals" who underperform the market shouldn't be well compensated at all. In my opinion those who underperform are worth less than minimum wage because the clients would have been better off investing in a mindless index fund. It should be obvious to all with at least a minimal understanding of finance that, in a normal statistical distribution, the majority can't beat the average.

In a purported meritocracy, only those who excel should profit. The market can't fix this problem no matter what the delusional ivory tower libertarian economists think. We need regulation to protect us. We need a democratic government seeking to protect the 99% from the fundamental corruptions that naturally spring up in all markets.

Again, if you haven't yet, please read my post about how "Libertarianism is a Quaint Anachronism".
• http://corpania.blogspot.com/2008/10/regulations-are-crucial-libertarianism.html
 
 
 _____________

LINKS:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Reinvestment_Act - Basically, a bank can't take all the deposits from one neighborhood (e.g. the ghetto) and then exclusively make loans to a different neighborhood (e.g. the suburbs).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm-Leach-Bliley_Act - which repealed the decades-long successful Glass-Steagal protections.
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_Futures_Modernization_Act_of_2000 - which enabled the proliferation of dangerously leveraged derivatives that Warren Buffet calls "Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction".




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government-sponsored_enterprise

Again, if you haven't yet, please read my post about how "Libertarianism is a Quaint Anachronism".
• http://corpania.blogspot.com/2008/10/regulations-are-crucial-libertarianism.html


Blame the Homebuyers Only if You Reject Your Doctor's Advice….

Blame the Homebuyers Only if You Reject Your Doctor's Advice….
 
This post is for those who reject (or simply don't understand) the Occupy Wall Street movement.
 
Libertarian, bank-apologists who are against "the 99%" all too often make two particularly specious arguments that I will definitively debunk here. They fraudulently claim...
 
1) "It's not the banks' fault at all. The only guilty people are the homebuyers who took out loans they couldn't afford."
 
2) "It's not the banks' fault at all. The government 'MADE' the banks loan to non-creditworthy homebuyers."
 
BOTH OF THOSE STATEMENTS ARE VIRTUALLY 100% BULLSHIT.
 
Here's why…
 
1) Consider this analogy: You go to the doctor thinking you are OK but he hypothesizes that you may be sick with cancer. He states the only way for him to find out for sure is for you to get an expensive high-tech scan.
 
Now, how often do you reject the doctor's recommendation? I wouldn't be surprised if the average person (with insurance) probably gets the recommended test 99 times out of 100.
 
Why? It's because the doctor is the professionally-educated, government-regulated expert with explicit obligations to look out for the patient's interest. Well over 99% of the time the patient is necessarily less-educated than the doctor is on medical issues. So, naturally, the patient defers to the expertise of the doctor. In an advanced economy with an increasingly specialized division of labor this is as it should be; standardized deference to expertise.
 
Now examine how analogous that is to a typical homebuyer going to his "personal banker" at the bank where he has been a checking/savings customer for years. He goes in because he wants to buy a house. (Maybe he was even "cold-called" and invited to come in by that banker). This typical homebuyer knows what he spends every month for rent but has no knowledge whatsoever about the rules, norms & pitfalls of home-buying.

Virtually identical to the doctor's relationship to a patient, the banker is a professionally-educated, government-regulated expert with explicit obligations to look out for the customer's interest. But instead of sticking to decades-proven norms of "Always put at least 20% down" and "Mortgage shouldn't be more than 30% of your income" the entire banking industry (most especially from 2000 to 2008) was exploding with "Liar Loans" that were outright fraud as well as "Interest Only Loans" that doubled after an introductory period. These shady loan sharks might have delusionally rationalized to themselves "Hey, if the real estate prices keep going up these poor schlubs can always refinance." But these bankers were wrong and you simply can't blame the customers for trusting their banker.
 
"Caveat Emptor (Let the Buyer Beware)" the libertarian, banker apologists scream. But unless you expect everyone to become expert in everything then you don't really believe that. The world has simply evolved to a level of complexity that requires expertise and therefore trust in experts.
 
If you don't think the customer should be able to trust his professional, regulated expert then how do you feel about the following hypothetical situations?
 
a) Your accountant says certain deductions are legitimate (which seems intuitively plausible to a reasonable person) but when the IRS comes to arrest you for tax evasion he flees and bears no responsibility.
IN TRUTH: You can sue your accountant in such situations and the judges in tax court generally give such suckered filers some leeway (at least compared to self-filers).
 
b) Your lawyer assures you that it is completely legal to use Mickey Mouse's image in your company's advertisements because the Mickey Mouse character first appeared in the animated short "Steamboat Willie". Copyrights expired 50 years after the death of the author and Walt Disney died in 1956. But then Disney corp sues the crap out of you and your attorney flees responsibility claiming that he told you true facts.
IN TRUTH: I am not a lawyer but you CANNOT use Mickey Mouse's image in your advertisements without permission from Disney (in part because copyrights have since been extended and in part because Mickey Mouse is also protected by trademark law).
 
C) While getting your oil changed on a cross country trip, the mechanic (who is very sinister, unbeknownst to you) advises you to get new brakes and, in the interest of safety, you agree. But he switches your fully-functional brakes with used/worn-out garbage brakes. You drive right on to the highway and the brakes fail completely causing you to rear-end another car. The accident kills the baby who was going to grow-up and cure cancer.
IN TRUTH: (again I'm not a lawyer) While there is such a thing as a true non-negligent accident it doesn't really apply here. In this example the mechanic is more culpable for manslaughter than you are. Plus that baby was just going to save his cancer cure for his cult-followers on his racist micro-nation island and then unleash a cancer epidemic on the world like a Bond villain. So don't be too hard on yourself for getting your brakes changed.
 
Ok, that's enough for one post.
 
On my next post I will address libertarian, bank apologists' second specious argument - "It's not the banks' fault at all. The government 'MADE' the banks loan to non-creditworthy homebuyers."
Don't worry I will completely debunk that, too.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Why god allows evil to exist: Agnostic sees argument "All Evil Reduces to Zero"

Here's a random quasi-philosophical thought:
Though I'm still a skeptical thinker and an ardent agnostic, I nevertheless take pride in my deliberate humility on this issue especially. I know I could be wrong so I'm aggressively open-minded. I recently arrived at an interesting idea (notice I didn't write "I came up with it" because I'm sure someone else has thought of this before me). 

Here it is... 
There's a logical/internally coherent response to the atheist's perennial question: 
"How can an omnipotent, omniscient, omnibenevolent god still allow so much evil in the world?"
Personally, I never found the "free will" justification compelling. 
The trick I like here is in boldly challenging the premise that there is "so much" evil. (Basically, I'm merely reformulating the "Afterlife" argument - theodicy). I call this idea "All Evil Reduces to Zero".

NOTE: Assume the position of the faithful (i.e. believe that god exists and is omnipotent, omniscient and omnibenevolent and also believe that heaven exists for all eternity) and still recognize all the evil that exists in the world (e.g. crime, war, famine, disease etc.).

Point#1) As you age, your perception of time changes such that periods of time that seemed like eternities as a child (e.g. a car ride) seem like trivial blips when you're older. (q.v. Cracked.com's article on immortality if you had to live forever on earth http://www.cracked.com/article_18708_5-reasons-immortality-would-be-worse-than-death_p2.html ) 

Point#2) Similarly, we recalibrate our concepts of pain and justice as we age. 
PAIN: The needle of an inoculation shot seems terrifying and excruciating as a child but for adults seems absurdly inconsequential compared to the benefits. 
JUSTICE: A teenage girl stealing her sister's boyfriend seems perfectly fair (to herself) in the moment but is viewed differently (e.g. it's not "right" but also it's just not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things) as she matures and gains a greater understanding of the world.

Point#3) Given points #1 and #2 and the assumption that the eternity of time in "heaven" is truly infinite then one must necessarily conclude that a given human's entire time on earth will thus "reduce to zero" (as will all of humanity's time on earth) compared to the infinite afterlife.

Consider this: a child's perception is that "this one-hour car ride took forever" and "the doctor's needle shot is the worst pain in my life" but by the time he's 30 years old both seem absurdly meaningless. Given those assumptions, isn't it reasonable to extrapolate that all such pains/crimes/atrocities will similarly recalibrate downward when viewed along a broad-enough timeline? 

One murder is a tragedy for the victim's family and friends but it's merely a statistic to the rest of the population in that time period. Even worse, that statistic is likely less-and-less known while becoming more-and-more irrelevant to subsequent generations. The Holocaust is still relatively fresh in our collective minds because some people who survived it still testify and, as a culture, we remember to retell the history. Compare that to slavery in America hundreds of years ago or Stalin or Mao where multiple times as many human beings were killed (q.v. Who killed the most humans; Hitler or Stalin or Mao?).The further back in time the evil goes the less relevant it is to us, necessarily. 

Even if you live on earth for 100 years, remember that 100 divided by Infinity = Zero.
That isn't meant to be a nihilistic criticism that life is meaningless but rather, to the faithful, life on earth is relatively meaningless compared to the eternity of life in heaven. Thus making "getting into heaven" (q.v. faith) all the more important and "good deeds"/"repairing the world" much less important.

So while this whole argument ("All Evil Reduces to Zero") is interesting to me for its internal coherence it is still fatally flawed from a fully rational point of view. That's because it requires its assumptions (e.g. the existence of God & Heaven) to be correct in order for the conclusions (e.g. have faith in the existence of God & Heaven) to be correct. Such a circular argument is both irrational and without evidence and thus dismissible by any critical thinker who requires evidence.

NOTE: To my friends who genuinely have faith - please forgive me. I don't mean to offend. Perhaps you can take, as an amends, my explicit recognition that I could be wrong.


Tuesday, September 06, 2011

increasing taxes on the rich doesn't discourage production

Conservative & Libertarian apologists for absurd supply-side policies (e.g. flat tax, end capital gains taxes etc.) always feature as part of their argument something tantamount to - "increasing taxes on the rich 'discourages' production and wealth creation" but let's all embrace reality and call that bull crap. If you didn't know the facts, you could imagine evidence for their assertion would include lower production & wealth creation under Clinton and higher production & wealth creation under GWBush.
BUT, IN REAL LIFE, THE EXACT OPPOSITE HAPPENED.
Thus eviscerating their argument. QED.
>>>
SECONDARILY - Conservatives & Libertarians consistently make the superficially plausible argument that "private industry is always better than government". Let's leave aside the myriad examples where the results prove that, at a minimum, their claim isn't true 100% of the time (q.v. private contractors in modern wars etc.)
>Instead let me mention that, in the current situation where private industry is sitting on $2 TRILLION in cash and not spending it on growth/jobs in the US (because demand is so weak), giving further tax breaks to the wealthy and to corporations (which are enjoying RECORD PROFITS, literally) is a bad idea because they've proven that THEY WON'T SPEND IT on America. Whereas government-run FDR-style plans will actually put money into the American economy.
>>>
Finally, let's remember that the current GOP talking points about "regulation & taxes are choking industry" is complete bullshit by any historical standards or reasonable appraisal of rival countries.
"Regulations, taxes aren't killing small business, owners say">

Saturday, September 03, 2011

Price Everything Based on "Duration of Utility"- MY NEW ECON THEORY

I've been thinking more and more about my brilliant proposal: "Universal Value and 'Years of Sustenance' System".

If you haven't read it yet please at least skim it before you continue reading this post.
http://corpania.blogspot.com/2010/05/universal-value-price-dollar-to-years.html

When you buy a product you expect it to give you some utility. An apple is supposed to be edible (sate your hunger and give you calories/vitamins). If it falls short of that expected utility (e.g. because it's poisoned) you have the right of redress in the courts (using some sort of fraud statute - again I ain't a lawyer).

When you buy a TV you expect it to work with your DVR & gaming system and function for some period of time. The very concept of a warranty is a direct endorsement of this paradigm.

With that as the foundation, explore this philosophical leap with me...

Instead of buying products for what they are and their implied duration of utility, everything (and I do mean virtually everything) should be priced in terms of "DURATION OF UTILITY".

For reference: Most supermarket shelves helpfully note the price-per-ounce/use so you can better compare prices. The bigger container of cereal may not necessarily have the best price value. Perhaps, that day, buying two 9-ounce boxes is cheaper than buying one 18-ounce box.

Similarly, the "ultra-concentrated detergent" that has enough cleaning power for 20 loads in its tiny 20-ounce container needs to differentiate itself from the competitor in a conspicuously larger 30-ounce container that is substantially more watered-down and thus only can clean 10 loads.

In a somewhat related example, most cable systems rent you their cable box on a monthly basis rather than make you pay up-front to own the box outright.

These companies recognize that the up-front cost & size of the container is virtually moot compared to the amount/duration of utility it's offering the consumer.

All I'm advocating is to advance the entire economic system to its next step in a logical and beneficial evolution. All (almost literally "all") products should be required to offer warranties and price them accordingly.

For example:
Samonite Luggage - instead of selling a $200 piece of luggage it could keep its existing 10-year warranty and consistently price at $20 per year and still demand to sell in 10-year bundles. Consumers would ultimately see the "bottom line price" just before they decide on their transaction but they'd first be presented with the "cost per year". This new paradigm would enable better long-term decision-making.

DEVIL'S ADVOCATE: Yes, I concede that this adds a potentially undesirable level of complexity to the buying process.

RESPONSE TO THE DEVIL'S ADVOCATE: Sure but that's a good thing. Life is WAY more complicated than it was just 50 years ago and the "complexification" is only accelerating. It's time we all kept up. We need to propel critical thinking and root-out the malefactors.

Again, you need to know about how I think of currency value to get my argument...
http://corpania.blogspot.com/2010/05/universal-value-price-dollar-to-years.html

I'm eager for your feedback but please don't type anything until you've read and really understand what I'm trying to convey. Thanks and good karma to you.

Why "Sex with Your Mom" Jokes Used to Be More Offensive (NSFW)

Here's one of my more eccentric theories and many of you may have already heard me present it in NSFW conversation.

Why "Sex with Your Mom" Jokes Used to Be More Offensive...

Don't get me wrong. I love a good "your mamma" joke.
Nevertheless, I think we can all agree that, back in the day (especially before 1950s), making reference to having sex with somebody's mother (or sister or daughter) was maximally offensive and virtually "fighting words". Whereas today it's not nearly as big of deal.

One could validly argue that's due to America's "ever decaying morals" and the world's "continual descent into prurient hedonism". But I have a different explanation. It is provocative and, as yet, unsubstantiated. Even so, I think it's worth posting.

Especially back before the 1950s, they didn't even really have the concept of "date rape" or "marital rape". Plus, there wasn't a culture promoting "sexually satisfying a woman". It took the "sexual revolution" and decades of books & TV shows about sex for the culture to advance to the point where unselfishly, sensitively satisfying a woman was a good thing.

With that in perspective, most especially before the 1950s, it is therefore necessary to conclude that sex was normally much less fun for the woman. It is less provable but still my theory that it was culturally acceptable, back then, for guys to often be brutally selfish, even violent (e.g. How many movies had a hero slapping a woman back then compared to today?).

So if you're a man back then (who by modern standards would be validly considered a detestable, violent, date-raper) and someone mocks you by referencing having sex with your mother (or sister or daughter) of course you would feel maximally offended because you would want no such act perpetrated on the women in your family. Similarly, if you were a mother back then, of course you would warn your daughter not to have sex before marriage. Heck, you might even encourage a life as a nun!

Contrast that with 2011, where sex is now supposed to be fun for all involved and selfish behavior is culturally discouraged (not to mention the thankfully widespread, valid public support for comparatively recent laws outlawing violent behavior that would have been tolerated if not encouraged back then). Sure, there are still reasonable taboos that make "sex with your mamma..." jokes dangerous enough to enhance the comedy and increase the NSFW warnings. But generally you want everyone you know to have a full life which normally includes sex. It's still gross and creepy to consider when you're hit with such a joke. But it's no longer a culturally acceptable reason to kill someone.

With that earnest attempt at "gender studies" scholarship established, here are a few of my current favorite "sex with your mamma" bits of comedy:

1) You're mamma is such a whore that when she blows me for free I have to declare it as income. (Yes, that's my slightly rewritten version of the joke I recently wrote as if I was roasting Charlie Sheen).

2) SNL's *NSFW* music video "Mother Lover" (censored link).
Here's the UNCENSORED version:
http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/digital-short-motherlover-uncensored/1103443/
http://www.hulu.com/watch/73123/saturday-night-live-snl-digital-short-motherlover-uncensored

3) Ray William Johnson's NSFW music video "Doin' Your Mom":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfYyBp4Ln2s

Comment here if you think I should re-post without those comedy links.

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Ok, I was wrong on about my "14th" prediction.

Ok, I was trying to bold and interesting with my predictions. But it didn't work out because I was completely wrong when I thought there was some serious chance that Obama would use the "14th Amendment" to resolve the debt ceiling issue in August 20111.

I, yet again, conflated what I thought would happen with what I wanted to happen. To be fair, most prognosticators are inherently vulnerable to this problem. Nevertheless, I'm maintaining my intellectual integrity by keeping up my bad predictions as well as the good. Anyone who indulges in selective deletion is deceptively altering readers' perception of his efficacy.


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Friday, July 29, 2011

Give me odds & I'll bet Obama uses the "14th" to solve the debt ceiling crisis

As I've been mentioning for a couple of weeks now, I think it's increasingly likely Obama will use the "14th Amendment argument" to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling to avoid default.

I know my politically savvy, in-the-know friends (who attend Drinking Liberally functions) have rationally argued that since the Boehner(GOP) and Reid(Democrat) plans are so similar they should just come together and strike a deal.

And a month ago, I was buying Cenk Uygur's prediction that the GOP was simply engaging in brinksmanship to get better terms with the ever-cowering Democrats but in the end the corporate-controlled GOP would make a deal since a default would be disastrous for the corporate interests.

But now I think the politics trumps the reasonable policy. The GOP members of congress are terrified of getting primary challenges by some Tea Party nutcases from out of the blue. The Tea Party groups are so extreme they even oppose Boehner's plans (which have unprecedented concessions from the spineless Democrats). So the GOP simply can't approve of any deal even though most (behind closed doors) might admit that they don't actually want a default.

By "letting" Obama use the "14th Amendment plan" the GOP can thus preserve their conservative "purity" with their Tea Party base. Plus, as a bonus, if Obama does unilaterally raise the debt ceiling on 14th amendment grounds then the GOP gets what it thinks is a great campaign point about Obama's "unconstitutional, dictatorial power grab".

On the flip side, Obama's liberal base wants a clean debt-ceiling raise without any concessions/compromises and they don't care how that happens.

Consequently, the GOP would be happy with a "14th Amendment plan" and so would the Democrats.

The only things left to consider would be the ramifications.
PRIMARILY...
*Would the Supreme Court overturn it?*
> I say no for three reasons:
        a) Law Professors say it would be tough for a litigant to prove "standing".
        b) If interest rates don't spike (because there was "no default") then any judge would be loathe to intervene for fear of spooking the now-soothed markets.
        c) Even the right-wing members of the Supreme Court travel in corporate & money circles (not so much with the less-educated, low-brow Tea Party members). So the corporate interests who are terrified of default will influence/put pressure on powerful judges to not intervene/overturn Obama.
     

AND SECONDARILY...
*"Do the politics of using the "14th plan" cut particularly poorly against Obama?"
> I say no for four reasons:
         a) Assuming interest rates don't spike, Obama can effectively argue the necessity of his action (using the counter-factual: "if I hadn't then rates would've spiked").
         b) If rates do spike, Obama can argue that they were caused by GOP brinksmanship which necessitated his use of the "14th Amendment plan".
         c) Obama can make Clinton's argument that the increase in the debt ceiling was for "the dinner we already ordered and ate and therefore had to pay".
         d) The global intelligentsia (from Greenspan to Buffet to the head of the IMF) think that America's "debt ceiling" shouldn't even exist.

Just my quick analysis and long shot prediction.
I could quickly & easily be proved wrong.
But I hope I have the intellectual integrity to keep this post up either way.

We'll see what happens.


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Saturday, July 16, 2011

COMEDY TEXTBOOK: Taxonomy Continued - "Extend the Analogy Inappropriately"

I continue to try to add to my 18+ year back-burner project of compiling a "Comedy Textbook".

COMEDY TAXONOMY - Technique: "Extend the Analogy Inappropriately"

Take an analogy that is apt & universally accepted and then extend it ("Yes and...") further with over-the-top inappropriate examples.

I give credit to comedy writer Tim Carvell for inspiring me with his funny tweets:

• "Baby, you're a firework! You frighten animals and people can buy you by the side of the road in New England!" 
• "'Cause baby, you're a firework! You're loud and smoke and sometimes take children's thumbs off!"

Eventually, I do hope to complete the textbook.

Friday, July 01, 2011

How soon before corporations demand the right to vote?

Anybody care to predict when corporations will earnestly attempt to get rights to vote in elections?

Take any of their absurd arguments for legally buying politicians (q.v. Citizens United supreme court decision)  and tell me how a reasonable person with integrity would defend that and not the maximally obscene idea of corporations getting the right to vote for President (or congress etc.).

I note this here on my blog as yet another time stamp to test my predictive powers.
I hope I'm merely being provocative and extreme in this prediction.
I hope I am proven wrong about corporations demanding the right to vote.
I fear this post will be like the meme that says there is no satirical Onion article so extreme that someone won't believe it's true.

Random idea: Wedding Registry - Cable,Cell,Utility Bills

Don't know if I'm the first to think of this but I'm pretty sure, at a minimum, it ain't popular yet: "Wedding/Baby Registry for Bills"

This would be in addition to or instead of couples registering for random gravy boats and place settings for grand dinner parties they'll rarely, if ever, have.

Maybe I'm overly-practical or iconoclastic but this idea is undeniably useful.

Plus, it's less crass than cash since you're buying, for example, a month of "the works" cable package and can take vicarious pleasure from them recounting the great shows/movies they saw. But it's as useful as cash since they likely would be spending that money anyway (or a substantial portion of it if they ordinarily have more scaled-down cable packages).

This should be particularly attractive to cable companies since people are often lazy and stick with the extra channels once they've signed up on a trial basis. The cable companies could have an extra-special discount deal for newly married couples who sign-up for the registry package.

And of course this system could apply to any recurring bill (cable, Hulu, cell phone, landline, water, electric, trash, club memberships, annual vacations, even rent & taxes!).

The key is that it would be quantified in days, weeks, months with corresponding amounts. "Thanks for the two weeks of electricity. You know we're using it!"

SIDE NOTE: The paternalistic giver can take pleasure in knowing bills will be paid (pre-paid) especially in the case of particularly young or impulsive couples (e.g. those with gambling or drug addition problems).

Hey, it's no worse than registering at half the cheesy stores out there.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

CORRECTION: On February 24, 2011 - I actually wrote $86 (not $87)

CORRECTION:
In my June 23, 2011 post (http://corpania.blogspot.com/2011/06/get-out-of-your-short-position-on-oil.html) I made an error. I erroneously mentioned that on February 24, 2011 - (http://corpania.blogspot.com/2011/02/oil-at-100-seems-really-highshort-it.html) I wrote $87 was my target price. The correct number was $86. And my June 23, 2011 advice is to get out before the target in order to "book the win" so my consistently profitable prediction streak continues.

But don't forget that my prediction was nevertheless still good since following my advice would have netted you a nearly 9% profit in 4 months.

NOTE - I include my errors, corrections and bad predictions on my blog to further prove the integrity of the posts.


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Get out of your short position on Oil

CAVEAT: I am not a professional financial adviser. Please consult one before you consider taking any of my advice. This blog is for entertainment purposes only.

On February 24th, 2011 - I advised selling oil short (when it was $100 a barrel).
http://corpania.blogspot.com/2011/02/oil-at-100-seems-really-highshort-it.html
"Oil at $100 seems really high since the fundamental use (demand) and availability (supply) substantially haven't changed (IMHO)."

Well it's June 23rd, 2011 - And now that oil is at $91.04 I'm advising you to get out of your short position and book the roughly 9%+ profit in 4 months.

My amazingly great oil price prediction streak continues.
Has anybody noticed or fully appreciated that?

BTW - It could go lower still but I love the validation of making consistently profitable recommendations. So even though I originally said sell at $87, I'm saying now book the win and be content.


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Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Words Invisibly Recalibrate: Another Reason Testing Predictions is More Valuable Than Reviewing History

I'm a longstanding proponent of using science over history in determining future policy.
The Scientific Method insists on "Testing Predictions" which enables crucial falsifiability.
Whereas History can be cherry-picked for only the confirming data. This is much like con-artist tarot card readers whose "cold reading" techniques use "confirmation bias" to trick suckers into thinking supernatural/paranormal powers exist.

But this post is about how "Words Invisibly Recalibrate".

When you were a small child you probably thought regular black pepper was "spicy". As you got older you probably recalibrated to simply consider it a "seasoning" and then you thought that jalapenos were spicy. If you grew up in a home that enjoyed a lot of Spanish or Indian cuisine then you probably don't think that jalapenos are that spicy. And so maybe a Habanero chili pepper or Bhut Jolokia is your new defining spicy ingredient.

The Scoville Scale scientifically measures "spiciness". Here are some examples:
Pimento: 100 - 500 Scoville units
Tabasco Sauce: 2,500 - 5,000
Jalapenos: 2,500 - 8,000
Habaneros: 100,000 - 350,000

Now if I quoted you as having said "Black Pepper is the spiciest thing in the world." That shouldn't mean much if you were 7 years-old at the time and have since gone on to taste much spicier foods.

Similarly, when we quote historical figures we should be equally skeptical even when they use the same words we use today.
Consider these powerful words : Freedom, Free-Trade, Socialism, Protectionism
Recall your own quotes about them.
What if they meant something different back then? Surely they did, if only with respect to context and their particular factors.
NOTE - I have previously blogged about "Republicans' Shifting Definition of Socialism".

When you read The Old Testament of The Bible there are grandiose-for-the-time phrases like "the land flowing with milk and honey" to communicate abundance. When today virtually every single first world country (and surely every Western country) does indeed "flow" with milk and honey. Why didn't The Bible describe the comparatively much more glorious cornucopia of bounties in a modern, standard Costco? Penn Jillette is among the skeptics who say something to the effect of: "If the average Vegas magician did his act 2000 years ago he would have been heralded as a god." And don't forget Arthur C. Clarke's 3rd law: "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." History necessarily uses the same words (or translations) when the contextual differences have rendered the thoughts moot. That's because history as a social science is most flawed at "isolating the variable for measurement".

Another historical term that offends me (even though I'm Agnostic) is the term "King of Kings". As if the power differential between a human king to a regular person would be at all equivalent to that of an Omnipotent Supreme Being compared to a human king. Though I'm sure it was a useful comparison in the time of kings. But that's my point - communication is meant for its time and its desired audience. To take quotes out of that context is to make any statement that was possibly "valid-for-the-circumstances" potentially vulnerable to complete or partial invalidation.
For example:
1) Ptolemy vs. Copernicus
2) The original U.S. Constitution protected freedoms & voting rights for only white men who owned property. Whereas today we recognize that as absurdly narrow and unfair.

Next time someone attempts to assert the supposedly unassailable authority of our Founding Fathers you can dismiss him because he used to think black pepper was spicy.


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Monday, June 13, 2011

Reminder to Self - Explore & Write about Probability Problems

Don't really expect anybody to read this.

Just a reminder to myself to write about probability problems....

1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_envelopes_problem
2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg_Paradox
3) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_utility_hypothesis
4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Crux of my point here is what I believe to be the crucial distinction between odds before an event happens vs. the odds after an event happens when you're not yet aware of the outcome.

Maybe this is a semantic & meaningless distinction. Have to give it a lot more thought.

But for economic and political policy reasons I currently think the distinction is important and woefully under-examined.

Example: You and I want to bet on a fair coin-toss. If we bet before the coin is tossed then we can fairly reduce the variables down to the intuitively fair bet of 50/50. But if I toss the coin first and cover it before we bet then you can choose to implement heuristics and treat it as an identical situation. Consequently you think the odds are still 50/50. But the reality is the odds are 100/0 and you simply don't know which is which.

I currently think this is a subtle but important point. Because I think it can nullify some of the counter-intuitive paradoxes (in the links above). In the two-envelopes problem it is obvious to everyone that switching for infinity can't actually increase your expected utility.

I'm envisioning the permutation tree of possible outcomes for a given event. Standing at the point where it branches into two possible timelines is different from standing past that point and simply being blind to your position when you make a bet.

My intuition is telling me that because the latter is a sucker bet for one side it is thus necessarily more game-able (cheat-able). Consequently, it requires greater protections/constraints on potential cheaters.

This is related to the supposed geniuses who wrecked our economy by creating financial models that didn't appropriately track to the real world while nonetheless convincing investors otherwise.


Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Advise your boss to "pretend he's guilty"

The old saying about political scandals is: "The cover-up is often worse than the crime."

Most recent evidence (as of June 2011) : Republican Senator Coburn and Democratic Congressman Weiner.

So here's my recommendation to all those working for any politician:

If you hear about a scandal involving your boss, no matter how 'unbelievable', take him aside and say the following: "Don't deny the rumor! Just pretend you're guilty. Then make a public admission and apology. The media is always fixated on scandals (especially sex scandals) because they're much easier to understand compared to policy issues. Let's simply admit it because only that will enable us to move on to the important issues."

This tactic may be just enough of a dissembling kabuki dance to get some of the actually guilty people to make the right choice instead of letting instinctual defensiveness compel a futile strategy of denial.

Hopefully, the actually innocent will maintain their innocence. Whereas the guilty will thus have enough of a face-saving "out" to tell the truth (while only pretending that they're lying).

Of course this won't work with true sociopaths. But it's worth a shot.

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Monday, May 30, 2011

I add to the reasons why property crime rates keep dropping.

WSJ notes reasons for the continued drop in crime rates:
- increased incarceration
- rejection of previous notion that high unemployment necessarily means higher crime
- potential victims better at protecting themselves
- better policing
- 80% drop in lead levels in Americans' blood (bravo to the EPA!)
- decreased cocaine use
- increased abortion reduced numbers of children most likely to commit crimes (q.v. controversial research cited in "Freakonomics")

HERE'S MY ADDITIONAL REASON (at least regarding "property crimes"):
Tech goods dropped in price.

Consider this: in 1980, a stereo or VCR cost $300+ and that amount would be like $800 today. Whereas the modern equivalents of those devices are 1/10th the price. And expensive modern TVs are just too big to getaway with in a practical way.

Relatively speaking, it's simply tougher for a modern burglar to steal valuable things that can be easily resold. Just my quick little "brainstorm". I could easily be proven wrong on this.

-------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: My favorite part of the article...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304066504576345553135009870.html


There may also be a medical reason for the decline in crime. For decades, doctors have known that children with lots of lead in their blood are much more likely to be aggressive, violent and delinquent. In 1974, the Environmental Protection Agency required oil companies to stop putting lead in gasoline. At the same time, lead in paint was banned for any new home (though old buildings still have lead paint, which children can absorb).

Tests have shown that the amount of lead in Americans' blood fell by four-fifths between 1975 and 1991. A 2007 study by the economist Jessica Wolpaw Reyes contended that the reduction in gasoline lead produced more than half of the decline in violent crime during the 1990s in the U.S. and might bring about greater declines in the future. Another economist, Rick Nevin, has made the same argument for other nations.


Thursday, May 19, 2011

Improvement to my "CLIP" IP Policy Idea

For reference please review my previous post about "Compulsive Licensing of Intellectual Property"...
http://corpania.blogspot.com/2008/02/clip-compulsory-licensing-of.html

Here's my newest improvement:

"The Ten Million Users Threshold"

In order to transition to my better system of Intellectual Property AND ALSO to prevent the problem of "being ahead of your time", modify the regular patent system to be "CLIP-Activated and EXTENDED for 10 years" as soon as an invention has 10,000,000 users. Might be a little tricky to define who is a "user" - (q.v. does a bus have one user, the owner, or all its passengers?). But in this way the inventors wouldn't be punished for being ahead of their time.  Douglas Engebart patented the computer mouse in 1970 but it didn't really take off until two decades later (after his patent expired).

_____________________________________________________________

Here is the extended explanation of CLIP/CLIRP that I sent to Ian Lloyd, Professor of Information Technology Law at University of Strathclyde (who graciously gave me insightful feedback & encouragement).
-----------
Proposal for Patent "CLIRP"                                                      March 5, 2008

("Compulsory Licensing / Inventors Revenue Pools")

By Dan Abrams http://www.linkedin.com/in/optevi      

 

ABSTRACT

Intellectual property must exist in some form to incentivize innovation and thus encourage progress. The current system of government-enforced monopoly is massively flawed because it literally precludes progress. The current system is not necessarily the best, nor is it only way to achieve the objective of progress. I have an alternate system that maximizes progress and enables profit-participation for inventors through the capability of what I call CLIRP "Compulsory Licensing Inventors Revenue Pools".


My claim: Invention is primarily what makes life better for humanity over time, not business. Business is good primarily insofar as it encourages advancement for humanity. The current patent system may be good for business but not for advancement.

 

The goal of this proposal is to incentivize invention, discourage counterproductive litigation and end the suppression of progress. (Pretty ambitious, huh?)

What this proposal does not attempt to address: "Simultaneous Invention" - which will always be a problem.
 

What is the purpose of the current system of patent protection?
To encourage advancement by providing inventors with a profit incentive by means of a legally enforceable 20-year monopoly.

 

What are the motivations / positive implications of keeping the current U.S. patent system?

 

1) To reward advancement with a monopoly intuitively seems effective.

 

2) Giving the inventor total control over his/her invention intuitively seems fair.

 

3) Making it incumbent upon the inventor to profit from his own invention motivates not just the advancement itself but also its commercialization/popularization (so the idea is actually put in use by the public).

 

4) Making substantive changes to the current system would, at least initially, place a giant burden on the legal system. And such a burden would need to be significantly outweighed by the proposed solution.

 


What are the negative ramifications of the current system of patent monopoly?

 

1) A competitor that is threatened by a new invention has a motivation to purchase the patent rights for the sole purpose of killing its competition (e.g. hypothetically - old light bulbs that need to be replaced every year are likely way more profitable for a light bulb manufacturer than a newly patented light bulb that need only be replaced every 10 years.). It can do this by enforcing the newly acquired patent rights and thus preventing any use of that invention.

 

2) Businesses have a strong incentive to use their offensive patent rights to preclude competitors from any advancement that is remotely similar to their own. Instead of reasonably fighting over "rightful profits" companies actively quash progress with the help of the courts.

 

3) Businesses predicated upon IP have an incentive to be secretive and non-collaborative (which is antithetical to scientific advancement). This is particularly dangerous in the pharmaceutical industry where legitimate research data that are contrary to the product's claims of safety are intentionally excluded (q.v. VIOXX debacle where it was withdrawn from the market after defrauding the FDA and New England Journal of Medicine ). Secrecy in research can literally kill tens of thousands of Americans.

 

4) Inventors must also be entrepreneurs or else be otherwise beholden to businessmen to commercialize their ideas. This reduces the incentive to invent and further motivates smart and creative people to become businessmen instead of inventors. It shocks most people to learn that "Big Pharma" spends significantly more on marketing & advertising than it does on R&D. The skills and talents for invention do not completely match-up with those of a successful entrepreneur or businessman.

 

5) Patent infringement lawsuits are expensive and an unnecessary burden on the courts. The patent lawyers end up racking up limitless hourly fees on top of massive percentages of judgments and settlements. There is an incentive to use the patent monopoly as a pure business tactic (legitimate or not) to threaten to hinder the competition in order to extort lucrative settlements.

 

6) Most inventions that are patented are never commercialized to the point where the actual inventor sees revenue (let alone a profit above his costs of development and patent application).

 

7) Patent infringement lawsuits are litigated in courts where non-expert jurors have to "get up to speed on the basics of field" before the merits of the case can even be broached. This wastes time, money and legal resources while achieving less intelligent verdicts.

 


What is my solution? CLIRP ("Compulsory Licensing Inventors Revenue Pools")

 

The following is one possible implementation of the CLIRP concept.

Of course, specific terms and aspects would be subject to political and legal wrangling as well as corporate diplomacy. I propose: for a 5 year window inventors applying for patents could select a traditional patent or a CLIRP patent. After that probationary term only CLIRP patents would be possible.

 

What is a CLIRP Patent?

A CLIRP Patent confers upon the inventor 50 (fifty) years of profit incentive but not necessarily a monopoly. A CLIRP Patent confers upon the inventor the right to a monopoly only if no one else takes advantage of the "compulsory licensing" system.

 

How does the "Compulsory Licensing Inventors Revenue Pools System" work?

 

Synopsis: Companies put pre-set fees into "Inventors Revenue Pools" (annuities) that pay out to the appropriate, participating inventors. The Writers Guild of America's residuals system with binding arbitration would serve as a model.

 

BEFORE WE GO ANY FURTHER INTO CLIRP…

UNDERSTAND A "POT-ODDS DISINCENTIVE SYSTEM"

 

I think the entire legal system should apply a "pot-odds disincentive system". The concept comes from the gambling theory of evaluating bets in terms of "positive expectation". That's when the structure of the bet is not in accordance with true odds. For example - If we were betting on the toss of a coin, a bet of a dollar to win a dollar would be considered fair because those are "true odds". If it's heads you win my dollar but if it's tails I win your ten dollars then that would be a positive expectation bet for me and terrible for you. Slightly more complicated: if I were to bet on a single roll of a six-sided die that it would come up "1" and you're betting it will roll anything else ("2", "3", "4", "5" or "6") then betting a dollar to win a dollar is a terrible bet for me and a positive expectation for you. But if I were betting a dollar to win twenty dollars then that becomes a desirable bet for me despite the fact that I will lose 5 times out of 6. Likelihood of winning doesn't necessarily dictate the positive expectation. For a bet to be worthwhile it need only give a greater payoff than the true odds would dictate.

 

How would this apply to the law? I think when civil judgments are being considered the "pot-odds" concept should be the guide. How much did you steal? What was the likelihood of getting caught? Multiply it out and that's the true odds payout. Then add a premium punishment on top of the true odds. In this way businesses couldn't calculate the value of breaking the law (e.g. illegally dodging taxes while betting on the low likelihood of getting caught or deciding to risk not going public about an unsafe product or even unsafely disposing of toxic waste because the fines aren't prohibitive). By having a pot-odds disincentive system businessmen (rational actors) will always have to "err" on the side of abiding by the law because breaking the law would always have a mathematically unbeatable penalty. ---- OK, back to the specifics of CLIRP…


The Specifics of CLIRP

 

A company that did not invent or otherwise have inherent claim to a particular invention  may still use that invention, without permission from the inventor, so long as it abides by the certain strict rules of the CLIRP System.

1) That company not getting permission from the inventor must set aside the greater of 5% of the price or 10% of the profit of its good or service (by the definition of its business model that most favors the inventor) that will employ that CLIRP Patent in question to go into an "inventors' revenue pool" (IRP). The company would have to agree to "open the books" to independent auditors with a "pot-odds disincentive system"* that would penalize them at a premium above the likelihood of getting caught multiplied by the amount they attempted to improperly exclude from the IRP. This would encourage fair & honest accounting (not "Hollywood Accounting") for the inventors' share.


2) The inventors' revenue pool for that good or service is put in an escrow annuity account (in the safest/most conservative of financial instruments) that is regulated by a newly created branch of the USPTO called the "Inventors Revenue Pools Service". The annuity payments on a given product's IRP account would be distributed as defined by the inventors' relative shares in that IRP.  If your invention were used for 50 years (like the first TV) you would be handsomely rewarded but get a diminishing share of the pool as progress is made on your invention (e.g. maybe a miniscule share for non-tube TVs).


3) Distribution of shares in the IRPs: Every year, annuity payments from a given IRP would be distributed to all the inventors of record for that product. This would be determined initially by the corporation (based on standardized guidelines) but subject to binding arbitration much like the Writers Guild of America's screen-credit arbitration process. A newly created independent authority/organization (Inventors Arbitration Service) would evaluate the merits of inventors' contentions that they deserve a greater share than some other inventor.


4) The standardized guidelines would be established by an expert task force (blue ribbon commission) for each industry. There would be less incentive to "game" this system (compared to the current monopoly/exclusion system) because companies know they have to pay a set amount into the IRP so they shouldn't care as much about how it's split up. The current monopoly system has such vastly, varying extremes of outcomes that litigation is unavoidably a huge part of the game (q.v. the NTP / Blackberry lawsuit). An example of standardized guidelines for a new computer printer might take existing distributions of inventor shares (all necessarily publicly available on the internet) as precedent balanced against the company's (or ultimately the arbitrator's) assessment of the value of the new invention to that particular product. So if the printer previously used 24 CLIRP Patent inventions but now used a new wireless technology then maybe the floor for the new invention would be 4% and the ceiling would be 20% of that IRP. If one invention replaced another then that would be reflected in that inventor's share of that particular IRP. Distributions of IRP annuity payments (i.e. royalties) could be effectively paid to rightful inventors similar to the longstanding residuals process of the Writers Guild of America.

5) Of course, inventors and licensors could voluntarily agree to not use the CLIRP system. They could negotiate flat-fees or other compensation agreements however they see fit. The CLIRP system would only be used in the absence of a voluntary agreement. The CLIRP system prevents the prevention of progress and encourages voluntary agreements that are less burdensome than CLIRP's strict rules.

 

What are the benefits of the CLIRP system?

1) Encourages innovation with a longer profit cycle without "killing any progress".


2) Better inventions are more likely to be effectively brought to market because CLIRP-enabled competition doesn't bind the inventor to a particular company (a current variable which can only hurt the chances of the best product being best implemented commercially). In the current system, either the new invention is better or worse than what already exists. If it is better and the particular company with the monopoly is anything short of excellent then the chance of the best product prevailing are diminished. On the flip side, if the new product is worse but is superbly marketed then the success of the better product that already existed is therefore diminished in the current patent-monopoly system. This happens all the time with modern pharmaceuticals that need only be proven safe (by FDA's standards) and not necessarily more effective than the existing medications. In the US alone, there are untold billions wasted on new treatments that are demonstrably less-effective than older treatments & medications.


3) This ends the Diophantine-like problem of multiple inventions (variables) being present in particular products where a consumer must choose between product "A" that has inventions 1,2, 5,7,9 and product "B" that has inventions 1,3,4,5,6,8. Because the consumer currently can't isolate which inventions it prefers (because competitors have rival monopolies with their patents) better inventions are unjustly bound to worse ones yielding less-than-meritocratic results.


4) Businesses using the CLIRP system would have a known, quantifiable cost system for invention. This would be excellent for transparent, predictable accounting.


5) CLIRP reduces the risks and costs of lawsuits. There is also a de facto limit to any damages that could potentially arise from infringement. And that limit is already factored into their accounting (because the money has been set aside for the IRP). Potentially aggrieved inventors can only contest their share of an IRP and not prevent use. Business' costs of litigation should drop substantially if not tremendously. No factory would ever shut down over IP concerns.


6) There would be less incentive to develop "me too" technology that only nominally differentiates itself from a previous invention because the arbitrator's decisions about IRP share would be more savvy than a jury's. Consequently, more development would go into genuine breakthroughs that would stand the test of time. Think of 50 years of CLIRP / IRP share revenue for an AIDS vaccine as opposed to developing yet another version of Lipitor.


7) There would be a massive reduction of lawsuits and lessening the burden on the already clogged judicial system because of the new "IAS" arbitration process.


8) Due to the set IRPs, there is an incentive to be collaborative and build upon each other's ideas. An invention can't "make or break" one specific company. Competition would now ensure the best inventions have the best chance of success independent of a specific company. The inventors (and/or companies employing researchers & inventors) would get the maximum revenue directly attributed to the advancement itself (its share of an IRP) and not be unnecessarily tied to a specific company. Consequently, the best ideas can be maximally utilized because the playing field has been better leveled. (Of course the company holding the CLIRP patent would still have some competitive advantage because it would be getting revenue from its own sales plus its share of its competitors' IRPs whereas the competitors would be giving up revenue, in the form of IRP shares, to the CLIRP patent holder. But that is the whole point, to encourage innovation.)


9) Because of the creation of IRPs to be managed and potential IRP share buyouts, the banking sector may be a strong supporter for this proposal.


 

What are the downsides to the CLIRP system?


1) Trashes precedent and abandons decades of established legal theory (undoubtedly throwing a lot of patent litigators temporarily out of work or maybe into the newly created arbitration system).


2) Unclear how/if business would ultimately embrace/reject the CLIRP Patent system.


3) Creates a new government bureaucracy ("Inventors Revenue Pool Service" within the USPTO) to regulate the potential legion of Inventor Revenue Pools.


4) Creates a huge new bureaucracy of expert arbitrators for the IAS ("Inventors Arbitration Service"). Potentially creates an equally or more contentious situation in the arbitration system.

 

 

 

CONCLUSION:

 

The discussion and ultimate implementation of the CLIRP system (or something similar) will undoubtedly encourage more innovation than the current system. We stand on the shoulders of giants. We can't possibly climb as high if some shoulders are "off limits". CLIRP enables everyone to innovate and improve while still benefiting from a profit incentive/reward system (which I think is more meritocratic than the current monopoly-patent system).


 

CRITICISMS & RESPONSES

 

 

1) Why an annuity? Why not simply distribute IRPs at the end of every year?

 

With an annuity the benefits get paid out over many years which serves as a check on short-term gaming of the system and outright theft. If a disreputable company could distribute as it sees fit immediately then there would be little recourse if it were later proven that a particular inventor was wronged. Whereas with an annuity the payouts distributed in a given year would only be a fraction of the total worth which allows for subsequent claims to be fairly addressed. Also, with modern automated online banking, micropayments to many inventors is indeed viable (q.v. paypal or "Google Adsense" payouts to web affiliates).

 

 

2)  I invent a printer.  You sell computers and printers.  So you market your product like this: buy a computer, get a printer free.  Your valid accounting books show that printers are a net zero at best and a negative advertising cost at worst.  So you can therefore not pay me anything on my printer invention.  (similar with printer + ink business model).

 

This is indeed a problem. But it already exists in the current patent system so my CLIRP solution is at least no worse. Also, remember that my solution is such that the pool is based on the entire business model's revenue (including both the computer & printer in terms that most favor the inventor with the burden of proof squarely on the company to disprove the inventor's claims). Or better yet, the blue ribbon commissions could establish reasonable industry-specific standard ways of dealing with this issue of complex business models. Practically speaking, over enough time precedent normally handles the kinks in these kinds of issues.

 

 

3) I invent part of a printer.  I make 1/100th of a printer and so do 10 other inventors.  We each make a unique component in a basic way.  The company takes on the challenge of combining the patents together and in the mean time it invents a lot of good ways to combine them, reduce cost, eliminate components, and generally improve the product.  If the printer sells for $100 who is going to decide how much I make? 

 

The company would still make the initial distribution based on blue ribbon commission's guidelines. If an inventor feels aggrieved he can take it up with the arbitration service. This sort of thing happens all the time with the WGA's credit arbitration system and most everyone sees the benefit of it over any other known alternative.

 

 


4) Risk vs Reward.  Because this puts the full incentive on the inventor without any risk, it severely punishes the business which tries to monetize the patent.  Say for instance that you invent a printer but the parts wear out in 13 months and the business has to take a huge accounting write off because you failed to test this aspect of the invention.  Are you required to pay back all of your royalties on the printers that are returned?

 

I disagree that there isn't any risk for the inventor. The inventor puts in time and resources into R&D when the idea is most risky (e.g. it could already be invented, the desired implementation may not be physically possible etc.). And I disagree that it severely punishes the business that tries to monetize the patent.  With CLIRP the business would now have a known cost structure to use the COMPULSORY LICENSING patent. They can and should always first try to negotiate a VOLUNTARY LICENSING agreement on whatever terms are mutually agreeable. The strict requirements of the compulsory situation are actually meant to discourage not making a voluntary agreement. The compulsory licensing aspect only ensures that progress can't be stopped by legal force of the government.

 

Regarding the business losses, this is an interesting point. I expect the blue ribbon commissions to address this. But my initial thoughts are: 1) Losses could indeed be accounted in some way against revenue for the pool or 2) Losses could also simply be "a cost of doing business" and not used to punish the inventor because the business losses could easily be the fault of numerous people other than the inventor.

 

  

5) Simultaneous invention.  This subject is really important in internet patents. As soon as something becomes self evident another flurry of spin off ideas occur as inventions. Typically these involve combining the new concept with other existing concepts in novel ways.  But when one million people use Facebook every hour more than 1 may have the same idea.  Your idea seems to imply that the first one to file the patent can buy the biggest couch and bank account. 

 

This is also a problem already extant in the current system. So again my solution is at least no worse. But my system provides a much better remedy, the IAS (Inventors Arbitration Service). The IAS would be way better at resolving these issues compared to the absurdly expensive and slow court system (q.v. the WGA's successful credit arbitration system).

 

 

6) Why have any profit incentive at all? Why not be communists like the "Open Source" movement?

 

"Open Source" requires that the innovation not be monetized and that revenue can only be earned from "service contracts". This perversely encourages poor innovations that require lots of service (and thus more revenue). This conflict of interest is also antithetical to optimal progress.

7) With the whole new IAS system wouldn't there be more litigation?

 

I really don't think so. Part of the problem with regular litigation is how absurdly slow it moves. It can take years for a lawsuit to get to court and a decade to finalize. In the meantime progress is stifled and myriad issues become moot. Professional arbitration is much faster, especially when there are specific, predetermined guidelines. Binding arbitration also doesn't have to deal with unlimited appeals (that divert money & resources to the legal community instead of the inventors & businessmen). The WGA's credit arbitration system works very well as a model.

 


8)  Also, it doesn't seem this system cures the main problem with patents today (in the mind o the patent holders), and that is that Indian and Chinese companies are happy to ignore these patents, and as their industries get more and more capable of producing patented products, the whole patent system stops being so useful. And in 50 years, US purchasing power could be so low that threats of embargo and boycott should be pretty much meaningless.

On the whole, I basically agree. But as those countries get richer and if CLIRP indeed makes the legal licensing possible and easier then I think they are more likely to "play by the rules."

 

 

9) Wouldn't CLIRP encourage people to throw their own incrementally different patents into the pool, so they can wring profits out of it? Patent for patent's sake, heck if it's useful. Now, if a patent isn't used, it doesn't earn money. Your system would seem to encourage deadbeats, no?

 

I think you may not appreciate how rampant that disgusting behavior is within the current patent system. Because such patents can get injunctions to stop competitors the incentive is in fact higher in the current system than it would be under CLIRP. Also, I think my system's arbitration service would be considerably better able to handle complicated matters compared to undereducated jurors.

 

 

SPECIAL THANKS FOR THE CRITICISMS GO TO: Justine Coates, Marta Almli, Timothy Sharpe, and Chris Robbins.

 

And thank you, dear reader, for considering this entire proposal. Good karma to you.

 

Regards,

 

Dan Abrams

 

CC: Jim Garrison, Jane C. Ginsburg, Dean Kamen, William M. Landes, Senator Patrick Leahy, Lawrence Lessig, Richard C. Levin, Stephen A. Merrill, Robert P. Merges, Steve Perlman, Richard A. Posner, Mark Webbink.


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